Hurricane OMAR
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
0300 UTC THU OCT 16 2008
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 3 6 11
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 8 18 22
TROPICAL STORM X 1 8 24 47 49 45
HURRICANE 99 99 92 74 42 27 22
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 12 34 44 29 20 17
HUR CAT 2 16 35 35 19 9 4 3
HUR CAT 3 73 44 19 10 4 2 2
HUR CAT 4 9 7 3 2 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 105KT 100KT 90KT 80KT 65KT 55KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN JUAN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
SAINT THOMAS 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SAINT THOMAS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT CROIX 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
SAINT CROIX 64 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARBUDA 34 30 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
BARBUDA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GUADELOUPE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AVES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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