Hurricane OMAR

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008               
1500 UTC WED OCT 15 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       4       9
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1       4       9      19
TROPICAL STORM   4       4       8      17      34      45      45
HURRICANE       96      96      92      82      61      43      27
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       70      34      34      40      37      28      20
HUR CAT 2       22      43      36      24      14      10       5
HUR CAT 3        3      18      19      14       8       4       2
HUR CAT 4        1       2       3       3       3       1       1
HUR CAT 5        X       1       1       1       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   80KT    90KT    90KT    85KT    75KT    65KT    55KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34 22  18(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
PONCE          50  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
PONCE          64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34 14  34(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
SAN JUAN       50  1  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)
SAN JUAN       64  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 17  70(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
SAINT THOMAS   50  2  55(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X  33(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 43  52(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
SAINT CROIX    50  5  70(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
SAINT CROIX    64  1  42(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  4  69(73)   6(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X  32(32)   5(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  4  45(49)   2(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  3  27(30)   7(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
BARBUDA        50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARBUDA        64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANTIGUA        34  3  20(23)   4(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
ANTIGUA        50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  3   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
AVES           34 14  17(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
AVES           50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  2   5( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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