Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane OMAR


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008
 
OMAR HAS EXHIBITED A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...ALBEIT EMBEDDED IN WEAK
CONVECTION...IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT SUPPORTS MAKING OMAR A
HURRICANE AGAIN. THE 1601Z TRMM OVERPASS THAT DEPICTED A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT
OMAR WAS LIKELY A HURRICANE AT 12Z AS WELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 030/25. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS STARTED
TO WEAKEN...MAKING THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION MORE SHALLOW...THE
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
CORRESPONDING STEERING FLOW ALSO WEAKENS. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER OMAR...AND THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...OMAR IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE EASTWARD
WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT EXTRATROPICAL
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY-MONDAY. THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ABSORB OMAR IN 96 TO
120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN FORWARD SPEED
TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DUE TO A PERCEIVED SHARP SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS AND TURN BY
THE NOGAPS MODEL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
THE 65-KT INTENSITY RECENTLY ACHIEVED BY OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN 12 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
CYCLONE...ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM OMAR...A RE-FIRING OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...THE INTENSITY IS NOT BEING FORECAST TO DECREASE TOO
QUICKLY SIMPLY BASED ON THE CURRENT POOR SATELLITE SIGNATURE. IN
THE LONGER TERM...HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SSTS BENEATH THE
CYCLONE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY BY 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND THE HWRF DYNAMICAL MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 31.2N  53.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 32.9N  52.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 34.9N  49.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  47.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 38.0N  44.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 39.5N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 39.5N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:25 UTC