Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE
SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE AREA.  THEREFORE THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE
CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
NONETHELESS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SOME INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS. 

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 130/2. 
OBVIOUSLY THE STEERING WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE VERY
WEAK AT THIS TIME.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST.  THESE DEVELOPMENTS
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO QUITE CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

RADAR IMAGES FROM CURACAO SHOW RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION PASSING OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TODAY.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 14.3N  69.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.6N  68.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.3N  68.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.6N  67.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.3N  65.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.6N  62.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 26.0N  59.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 31.0N  57.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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