ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY AND THE APPARENT CENTER HAS BEEN AT TIMES EXPOSED DUE TO SHEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING WESTWARD SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR IS RELAXING A BIT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE DEPRESSION SHORTLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATED AND IT CONTINUES TO BE A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR. THE LATTER MODELS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND LITTLE MOTION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR PUERTO RICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH A FORECAST POSITION IS INDICATED AT 120 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THAT TIME. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.8N 69.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 14.9N 69.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 15.5N 69.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 68.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 17.7N 66.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 63.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 23.5N 59.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 27.5N 56.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:25 UTC