Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MARCO


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008
 
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...
THE INTENSITY OF MARCO IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE.  THE OVERALL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHEN THE AIRCRAFT
WAS THERE LAST...SO I'LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 55 KT. 
THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OVER WATER...SO SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN CALLING
FOR MARCO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.  AS WE HAVE
NOTED PREVIOUSLY...HOWEVER...SMALL CYCLONES ARE PARTICULARLY
SUBJECT TO LARGE AND MOSTLY UNPREDICTABLE CHANGES IN INTENSITY. 
EXAMINATION OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0100 UTC
SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIAL EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
EXCEEDINGLY SMALL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 NMI. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7.  A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SEPARATES MARCO FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MARCO ON
BASICALLY THE SAME TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE TRACK BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MARCO OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET AND BAM GUIDANCE.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 20.1N  96.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  97.1W    60 KT...JUST INLAND
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.9N  98.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:24 UTC