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Tropical Storm KYLE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008               
2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       1       3      13      20
TROP DEPRESSION  6       3       5       4      11      19      15
TROPICAL STORM  90      72      55      43      45      46      42
HURRICANE        4      25      40      53      41      22      23
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3      22      34      37      27      17      17
HUR CAT 2        X       2       4      11       9       3       4
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       4       4       1       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    65KT    55KT    55KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   4(23)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   5(30)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  28(31)   5(36)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  27(39)   2(41)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  25(33)   3(36)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   1(28)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)  22(47)   1(48)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   X(17)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  35(35)  13(48)   1(49)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)   X(19)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  22(39)   2(41)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  19(41)   1(42)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   1(16)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)  13(39)   1(40)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   9(34)   1(35)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   7(26)   X(26)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   5(23)   1(24)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   4(17)   1(18)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
CONCORD NH     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   3(22)   1(23)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)   3(32)   X(32)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  31(32)   3(35)   1(36)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   2(21)   1(22)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   2(18)   X(18)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  11(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:23 UTC