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Tropical Storm KYLE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
 
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003
MB...AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE AIR FORCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB...WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

AFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING...KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TO
THE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS
345/11...BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH.  KYLE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE
NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. 
BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  HOWEVER...IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

IF ANYTHING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN IT
WAS 6 HOURS AGO.  THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. 
AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG...BUT
DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE RESULTING
SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO
STRENGTHEN IT.  A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING
KYLE FROM THE EAST...WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE
WEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLE
TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR.  AFTER
THAT TIME...KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER
LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA.
 
INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 27.6N  68.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 29.5N  69.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 32.6N  69.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 36.5N  69.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 40.3N  67.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 47.5N  64.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 52.0N  62.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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