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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  47                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X      30      40      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       2      56      58      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   5      72      15       2      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE       95      26       X       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       25      24       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       47       2       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3       22       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        1       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT    65KT    30KT    30KT    NA      NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GULFPORT MS    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BURAS LA       34 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSON MS     34  3   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 18   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 52   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34 20  38(58)   5(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 79  11(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 37  18(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GALVESTON TX   50 93   4(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GALVESTON TX   64 75  11(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 90   8(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HOUSTON TX     50 66  24(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
HOUSTON TX     64 21  38(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
AUSTIN TX      34 19  17(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
AUSTIN TX      50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 10   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 95   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
FREEPORT TX    50 81   6(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
FREEPORT TX    64 44  10(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 75   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 32   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34 71   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
PORT O CONNOR  50 12   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
PORT O CONNOR  64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 20   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 43   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:22 UTC