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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1      19      47      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       3      44      49      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   1       7      51      34       4      NA      NA
HURRICANE       99      93      45       3       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       27      22      30       1       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       55      42       9       1       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3       17      27       5       1       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       3       1       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   90KT    95KT    65KT    35KT    30KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PENSACOLA FL   34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MOBILE AL      34  7   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 14   6(20)   1(21)   X(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
BURAS LA       34 47   6(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
BURAS LA       50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
JACKSON MS     34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 33  13(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 44   5(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 25  23(48)   3(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 42  27(69)   3(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  3  17(20)   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34 88  11(99)   X(99)   X(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 77  20(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 17  66(83)   2(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X  15(15)  20(35)   8(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 19  56(75)  14(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  1  46(47)  19(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X  15(15)  21(36)   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 18  63(81)  12(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
GALVESTON TX   50  1  59(60)  21(81)   2(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
GALVESTON TX   64  X  26(26)  23(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  9  53(62)  25(87)   3(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
HOUSTON TX     50  X  33(33)  31(64)   3(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   6( 6)  22(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X  12(12)  18(30)   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
AUSTIN TX      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   9( 9)   8(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 13  59(72)  15(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
FREEPORT TX    50  1  46(47)  21(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
FREEPORT TX    64  X  15(15)  20(35)   2(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34 31  50(81)   4(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  4  54(58)   7(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X  25(25)  10(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  7  37(44)  13(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X  14(14)  12(26)   1(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  3  14(17)   7(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  9  30(39)   6(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   9( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  2   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  5   5(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:22 UTC