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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008               
2100 UTC WED SEP 10 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       3      66      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1       7      21      NA
TROPICAL STORM   X       X       1       5      36       7      NA
HURRICANE       99      99      99      94      54       7      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        9       7       6       8      23       1      NA
HUR CAT 2       55      24      19      17      11       1      NA
HUR CAT 3       34      55      48      38      11       2      NA
HUR CAT 4        2      14      24      27       7       1      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       3       4       2       1      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT   105KT   110KT   115KT    90KT    30KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
KEY WEST FL    34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  6   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  8  11(19)   3(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  1   6( 7)   6(13)   3(16)   1(17)   2(19)   X(19)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BURAS LA       34  4  14(18)  13(31)   4(35)   3(38)   1(39)   X(39)
BURAS LA       50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 17  38(55)  10(65)   2(67)   X(67)   1(68)   X(68)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  1  16(17)   8(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1   7( 8)  13(21)   5(26)   4(30)   1(31)   X(31)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  6  32(38)  29(67)   7(74)   3(77)   X(77)   X(77)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   8( 8)  28(36)   7(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   1( 1)  12(13)   7(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   5( 5)   9(14)   8(22)   9(31)   2(33)   X(33)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   6( 6)  14(20)  13(33)  11(44)   2(46)   X(46)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X  12(12)  39(51)  24(75)   7(82)   1(83)   X(83)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)  31(51)   8(59)   2(61)   X(61)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  21(28)   7(35)   2(37)   X(37)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  17(21)   6(27)   X(27)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  22(33)  24(57)   4(61)   X(61)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  16(26)   3(29)   X(29)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  30(43)  24(67)   5(72)   X(72)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  25(42)   4(46)   X(46)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)   2(25)   X(25)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)  31(61)   8(69)   X(69)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  27(35)   4(39)   X(39)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   3(20)   X(20)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  32(42)  10(52)   X(52)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   4(19)   X(19)
AUSTIN TX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  27(36)  11(47)   X(47)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   X(17)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)  10(10)  32(42)  29(71)   6(77)   X(77)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  27(45)   5(50)   X(50)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  20(26)   4(30)   X(30)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   2( 2)  18(20)  39(59)  20(79)   4(83)   X(83)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  30(34)  21(55)   5(60)   X(60)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  18(34)   3(37)   X(37)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  29(36)  31(67)   7(74)   X(74)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  27(40)   6(46)   X(46)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   4(26)   X(26)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)  28(51)   9(60)   X(60)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)   5(30)   X(30)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   X(15)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)  11(11)  32(43)  25(68)   5(73)   X(73)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  20(40)   6(46)   X(46)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   3(26)   X(26)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  17(34)   5(39)   X(39)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)   X(15)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)  13(36)   4(40)   X(40)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   2(17)   X(17)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  6   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HAVANA         34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:21 UTC