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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 09 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       2       7      47
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       1       1       3       5      18
TROPICAL STORM  24       8       9       9      15      28      16
HURRICANE       76      91      91      90      80      60      19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       65      48      35      30      24      23       6
HUR CAT 2       10      33      35      28      22      17       5
HUR CAT 3        1       9      17      24      23      15       4
HUR CAT 4        1       1       3       6       9       5       3
HUR CAT 5        X       X       1       1       2       1       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   80KT    85KT    90KT    95KT   100KT   100KT    40KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ORLANDO FL     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  5   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MARATHON FL    34 19   6(25)   2(27)   1(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 42   5(47)   2(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
KEY WEST FL    50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  8   6(14)   4(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  5   7(12)   3(15)   1(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
VENICE FL      34  4   7(11)   4(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   1(19)
 
TAMPA FL       34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   3(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)   7(24)   X(24)   1(25)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   X(13)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   2(16)   1(17)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  15(26)   3(29)   1(30)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  21(32)  17(49)   2(51)   1(52)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)   1(19)   1(20)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   4(23)   1(24)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  31(49)   6(55)   1(56)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   4(25)   1(26)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   4(21)   1(22)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   6(26)   2(28)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  35(42)  11(53)   2(55)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   7(25)   2(27)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   2(15)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  14(30)   3(33)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  18(36)   5(41)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   3(18)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  18(31)   5(36)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   4(24)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
AUSTIN TX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)   6(29)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  20(38)   5(43)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   3(19)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)  21(48)   4(52)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  14(24)   3(27)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   3(14)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  24(41)   6(47)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   3(21)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  27(38)   6(44)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   4(20)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)  24(48)   5(53)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   4(28)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  24(38)   6(44)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   4(22)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  20(43)   4(47)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   2(24)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   4(22)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   5(16)   2(18)   X(18)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  3   5( 8)   5(13)   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)   1(18)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 39  26(65)   4(69)   1(70)   X(70)   1(71)   X(71)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  2  16(18)   3(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HAVANA         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HAVANA         50 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
HAVANA         64 16   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLE OF PINES  50 45   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
ISLE OF PINES  64 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CIENFUEGOS     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:21 UTC