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HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC TUE SEP 09 2008
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 1 2 13 22
TROP DEPRESSION 4 3 X 1 3 12 7
TROPICAL STORM 31 13 9 10 13 20 28
HURRICANE 66 83 90 89 82 56 44
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 49 45 35 30 25 18 18
HUR CAT 2 14 29 35 28 23 14 11
HUR CAT 3 2 8 17 24 23 16 10
HUR CAT 4 X 1 3 6 9 7 4
HUR CAT 5 X X 1 1 2 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 80KT 85KT 90KT 95KT 100KT 100KT 95KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
W PALM BEACH 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MIAMI FL 34 5 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
MARATHON FL 34 23 15(38) 3(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43)
MARATHON FL 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 34 22(56) 4(60) 1(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63)
KEY WEST FL 50 4 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14)
KEY WEST FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MARCO ISLAND 34 6 13(19) 6(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) 1(30)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 3 10(13) 6(19) 3(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24)
FT MYERS FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 1 8( 9) 8(17) 3(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 16(29) 3(32) 1(33)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 1(20)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) 2(26)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 8(39) 2(41)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 2(15)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 30(50) 6(56) 2(58)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 1(28)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 9(31) 3(34)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 35(44) 12(56) 2(58)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) 2(31)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 2(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 4(31)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 14(33) 5(38)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 19(49) 6(55)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) 5(29)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) 8(37)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) 9(41)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 10(35)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 10(41)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25(39) 8(47)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 5(24)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 11(38)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 9(31)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) 9(41)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 8(29)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 7(30)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANDROS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 9 33(42) 14(56) 3(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 9(10) 9(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
HAVANA 34 86 9(95) 2(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98)
HAVANA 50 61 19(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
HAVANA 64 13 17(30) 1(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
ISLE OF PINES 34 69 10(79) 2(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
ISLE OF PINES 50 32 10(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
ISLE OF PINES 64 10 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CIENFUEGOS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CIENFUEGOS 64 81 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
CAMAGUEY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:21 UTC