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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT
DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS
REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 
IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE.  IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE
CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS.  THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE
HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD.  
 
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 27.2N  92.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.2N  94.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  95.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 32.5N  96.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 36.0N  93.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:21 UTC