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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED
SURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...
A DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90
KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. 
ALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI
AWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY
THE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.

IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  IKE IS MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 36 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES
THEREAFTER.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.

THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT
OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL.  THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
AN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST.  HOWEVER...IKE
IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING
THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN
INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR. 
IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
 
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS
WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY
LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 26.7N  91.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 27.4N  93.2W    95 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  94.8W   100 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 31.3N  95.7W    55 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 34.4N  94.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 41.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:21 UTC