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Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS. 
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.  

THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.  USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. 
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. 
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES.  WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 23.9N  85.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N  86.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  88.6W    95 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 25.7N  90.7W   105 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 26.3N  93.1W   110 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  97.0W   105 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N  98.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  96.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:20 UTC