Hurricane GUSTAV
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HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 9 23 40 62 74 82
TROP DEPRESSION 5 46 49 38 29 20 14
TROPICAL STORM 91 44 28 21 9 6 4
HURRICANE 4 1 1 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MOBILE AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSON MS 34 18 X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 14 19(33) 3(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
SHREVEPORT LA 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 39 3(42) 1(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
GALVESTON TX 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
HOUSTON TX 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
AUSTIN TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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