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Hurricane GUSTAV (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       8      13      45
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X      12      15      19
TROPICAL STORM   1       1       1       3      26      32      14
HURRICANE       99      99      99      97      53      40      21
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3       7       6      13      20      17       5
HUR CAT 2       21      19      14      26      15      10       5
HUR CAT 3       69      55      47      36      12       8       6
HUR CAT 4        6      16      28      19       5       4       4
HUR CAT 5        1       2       4       4       1       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  105KT   110KT   115KT   110KT   100KT    70KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   2( 7)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
MARATHON FL    34  5  11(16)   3(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   1(22)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  7  22(29)   5(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)   1(37)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  2   8(10)   6(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)   1(20)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   6( 6)   7(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   1(18)   1(19)   1(20)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   2(15)   1(16)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   2(16)   1(17)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   9(25)   3(28)   2(30)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)   7(32)   2(34)   1(35)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  12(28)   3(31)   2(33)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   5(18)   X(18)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  24(39)   5(44)   2(46)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  32(40)  17(57)   3(60)   2(62)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  13(23)   2(25)   1(26)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  31(45)   6(51)   1(52)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   4(18)   2(20)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  36(52)   6(58)   2(60)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   5(26)   1(27)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   1(14)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)  39(64)   6(70)   2(72)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  28(35)   5(40)   1(41)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   3(22)   1(23)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  41(50)  25(75)   3(78)   1(79)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  24(47)   3(50)   2(52)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  20(29)   1(30)   1(31)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)  10(34)   1(35)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
JACKSON MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  42(57)   7(64)   1(65)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)   5(33)   1(34)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  35(59)   4(63)   1(64)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  27(34)   4(38)   2(40)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   2(22)   1(23)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  38(47)  10(57)   2(59)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   6(26)   X(26)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  38(46)  11(57)   2(59)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   6(26)   1(27)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  28(35)   7(42)   2(44)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)   1(20)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  17(27)   2(29)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)  12(37)   3(40)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   2(18)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  11(30)   3(33)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  13(26)   3(29)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  10(24)   3(27)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   3(27)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)   3(19)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   3(16)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 19  55(74)   4(78)   X(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  2  33(35)   5(40)   X(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X  14(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
HAVANA         34 65  20(85)   X(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   1(87)
HAVANA         50 10  27(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   1(38)   X(38)
HAVANA         64  1  12(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLE OF PINES  50 84   9(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
ISLE OF PINES  64 55  20(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34 63   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   1(66)   X(66)
CIENFUEGOS     50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND CAYMAN   50 14   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:15 UTC