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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 5 6 10 13 17
TROP DEPRESSION 22 15 19 16 17 12 15
TROPICAL STORM 76 73 63 54 48 41 39
HURRICANE 2 9 12 24 25 34 30
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 8 10 20 19 24 20
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 4 7 7
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X 1 2 3 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 6(22)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 5(25)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 10(28) 3(31)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 8(22) 2(24)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 11(24) 4(28) 2(30)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 2(20) 2(22)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) 3(25)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) 9(35) 5(40) 2(42)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 2(16)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
LES CAYES 34 X 10(10) 20(30) 7(37) 5(42) 1(43) 1(44)
LES CAYES 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 24(25) 19(44) 3(47) 4(51) 1(52) 1(53)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE BEATA 34 9 39(48) 5(53) 2(55) X(55) 1(56) 1(57)
CAPE BEATA 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11)
CAPE BEATA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:14 UTC