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Tropical Depression FAY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008               
0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       5      23      33      42      51      63      69
TROP DEPRESSION 70      60      44      31      25      24      20
TROPICAL STORM  25      17      22      26      23      13      11
HURRICANE        1       1       2       2       2       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       1       1       1       2       1       X
HUR CAT 2        1       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    25KT    25KT    25KT    25KT    20KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  7   1( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MOBILE AL      50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)
JACKSON MS     50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   8(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:13 UTC