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TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 15 20 31 43 53
TROP DEPRESSION 4 27 36 29 24 21 18
TROPICAL STORM 91 66 44 42 36 27 21
HURRICANE 5 4 6 9 9 9 9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 3 4 7 7 6 7
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 2 2
HUR CAT 3 1 X X 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 40KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
AUGUSTA GA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 34 8 4(12) 1(13) 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17)
JACKSONVILLE 34 56 7(63) 2(65) 1(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67)
JACKSONVILLE 50 4 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 81 13(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 31 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 48 3(51) 1(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53) 1(54)
ORLANDO FL 50 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 8 2(10) X(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
W PALM BEACH 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
MIAMI FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
VENICE FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13)
TAMPA FL 34 9 7(16) 4(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) 1(26)
TAMPA FL 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 19 15(34) 7(41) 2(43) 2(45) 1(46) 1(47)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 1 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 9(14) 14(28) 6(34) 4(38) 1(39) 1(40)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST MARKS FL 34 6 11(17) 14(31) 5(36) 4(40) 1(41) 1(42)
ST MARKS FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
APALACHICOLA 34 2 6( 8) 13(21) 9(30) 5(35) 1(36) 3(39)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 4( 6) 11(17) 8(25) 4(29) 2(31) 3(34)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) 1(11)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 9(26) 6(32) 2(34) 3(37)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 2(18) 1(19)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 1(19)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 10(24) 4(28) 3(31)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 10(22) 3(25) 5(30)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 4(22) 4(26)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 4(19) 5(24)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 5(21)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 6(19)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 5(18)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:12 UTC