Tropical Storm FAY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 14 26 40 53 62
TROP DEPRESSION 23 16 38 30 24 21 18
TROPICAL STORM 72 75 42 36 29 20 15
HURRICANE 4 7 6 8 8 5 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 6 5 7 6 4 4
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 34 3 8(11) 3(14) 2(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18)
JACKSONVILLE 34 13 24(37) 6(43) 2(45) 2(47) X(47) 1(48)
JACKSONVILLE 50 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 48 16(64) 2(66) 1(67) X(67) 1(68) X(68)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 9 6(15) 2(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 18 14(32) 3(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
ORLANDO FL 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 14 5(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23)
W PALM BEACH 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14)
TAMPA FL 34 3 8(11) 6(17) 4(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24)
TAMPA FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 14(17) 8(25) 6(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 7(23) 5(28) 1(29) 1(30)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST MARKS FL 34 1 7( 8) 10(18) 8(26) 4(30) 1(31) 1(32)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
APALACHICOLA 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 8(20) 5(25) 2(27) 1(28)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 6(24) 2(26) 1(27)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 7(22) 2(24) 1(25)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 1(14)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 3(18) 1(19)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 3(17) 2(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 1(15)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
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