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Tropical Storm FAY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008               
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       2      14      26      40      53      62
TROP DEPRESSION 23      16      38      30      24      21      18
TROPICAL STORM  72      75      42      36      29      20      15
HURRICANE        4       7       6       8       8       5       5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3       6       5       7       6       4       4
HUR CAT 2        X       1       1       1       1       1       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    45KT    30KT    25KT    25KT    20KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  3   8(11)   3(14)   2(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 13  24(37)   6(43)   2(45)   2(47)   X(47)   1(48)
JACKSONVILLE   50  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 48  16(64)   2(66)   1(67)   X(67)   1(68)   X(68)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  9   6(15)   2(17)   X(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 18  14(32)   3(35)   2(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
ORLANDO FL     50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 14   5(19)   2(21)   1(22)   X(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
VENICE FL      34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 
TAMPA FL       34  3   8(11)   6(17)   4(21)   1(22)   1(23)   1(24)
TAMPA FL       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  3  14(17)   8(25)   6(31)   2(33)   1(34)   X(34)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  1   6( 7)   9(16)   7(23)   5(28)   1(29)   1(30)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  1   7( 8)  10(18)   8(26)   4(30)   1(31)   1(32)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  1   3( 4)   8(12)   8(20)   5(25)   2(27)   1(28)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  1   2( 3)   8(11)   7(18)   6(24)   2(26)   1(27)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   7(22)   2(24)   1(25)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   1(14)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   9(15)   3(18)   1(19)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   3(17)   2(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   1(15)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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