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Tropical Storm FAY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       8      12      17      28      41      52
TROP DEPRESSION  9      42      26      26      27      20      18
TROPICAL STORM  88      48      58      50      37      31      23
HURRICANE        3       2       5       8       8       7       7
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       1       4       6       7       6       5
HUR CAT 2        X       1       1       1       1       1       1
HUR CAT 3        1       X       X       X       1       X       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    40KT    45KT    45KT    30KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   8(18)   2(20)   1(21)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   1(14)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)  10(24)   2(26)   1(27)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  1   2( 3)   7(10)   9(19)   8(27)   3(30)   1(31)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 10  10(20)  12(32)   3(35)   4(39)   1(40)   1(41)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 27   7(34)   4(38)   2(40)   3(43)   1(44)   X(44)
ORLANDO FL     50  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
ORLANDO FL     64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 64   5(69)   2(71)   1(72)   1(73)   X(73)   1(74)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  7   3(10)   1(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 86   X(86)   X(86)   1(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
FT PIERCE FL   50  7   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)
FT PIERCE FL   64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
W PALM BEACH   50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MARATHON FL    34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 14   X(14)   2(16)   1(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)
FT MYERS FL    50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   3( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  4   2( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   4(16)   2(18)   X(18)
TAMPA FL       50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   6(15)   3(18)   1(19)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   7(11)   4(15)   2(17)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   1(17)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   2(15)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   2(14)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  6   1( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:12 UTC