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Tropical Storm FAY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       3       9      28      50
TROP DEPRESSION  6      11       7       9       5      25      21
TROPICAL STORM  90      73      52      37      39      26      14
HURRICANE        4      15      40      51      48      21      14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3      13      33      32      31      12       7
HUR CAT 2        X       1       5      12      11       6       4
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       5       5       2       3
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       2       1       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    55KT    65KT    75KT    65KT    30KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   4(17)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   9(18)   4(22)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)   5(21)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  10(24)   4(28)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   1(15)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   9(21)   2(23)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
AUGUSTA GA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  10(31)   2(33)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  26(37)   7(44)   2(46)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)  24(43)   5(48)   1(49)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)   1(15)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  19(31)  19(50)   3(53)   1(54)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  16(26)  16(42)   3(45)   1(46)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   1(13)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  15(28)  12(40)   3(43)   1(44)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   5( 5)  14(19)  11(30)   8(38)   2(40)   1(41)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1  10(11)  17(28)  10(38)   5(43)   X(43)   1(44)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  4  29(33)  18(51)   5(56)   3(59)   X(59)   1(60)
MARATHON FL    50  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  4  43(47)  20(67)   5(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)
KEY WEST FL    50  X  10(10)  12(22)   3(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  1  15(16)  32(48)  14(62)   5(67)   1(68)   1(69)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  12(20)   3(23)   X(23)   1(24)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   9( 9)  30(39)  20(59)   7(66)   1(67)   1(68)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   6(24)   1(25)   X(25)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   5( 5)  27(32)  22(54)  10(64)   2(66)   1(67)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)   7(29)   1(30)   1(31)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)  17(19)  24(43)  16(59)   2(61)   2(63)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  11(24)   1(25)   X(25)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  20(27)  22(49)   5(54)   1(55)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)   2(23)   1(24)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  21(30)   7(37)   1(38)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  21(33)   7(40)   1(41)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)   1(17)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  19(32)   6(38)   1(39)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   X(15)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)  17(37)   5(42)   1(43)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)   1(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  17(24)   5(29)   1(30)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)   1(20)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   X(15)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  10(17)   3(20)   X(20)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   7(22)   1(23)   1(24)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
ANDROS         34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
HAVANA         34 14  49(63)   8(71)   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
HAVANA         50  2  16(18)   3(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
HAVANA         64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  5  11(16)   6(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ISLE OF PINES  50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34 84   2(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   1(88)   X(88)
CIENFUEGOS     50  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:12 UTC