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Tropical Storm FAY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       8       8      16      21      19      26
TROP DEPRESSION 51      46      29      31      26      12      17
TROPICAL STORM  46      44      58      46      44      39      36
HURRICANE        1       2       5       7      10      29      21
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       1       4       6       8      21      15
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       1       6       5
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       X       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    35KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    60KT    40KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   9(18)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   8(20)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   8(21)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   6(21)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   4(22)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  10(20)   4(24)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  11(24)   4(28)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  12(25)   3(28)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   5(25)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   6(24)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   6(23)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   6(20)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   6(17)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   4(18)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   2(17)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   7(13)   5(18)   2(20)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND TURK     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   8(19)   2(21)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   2(14)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   2(25)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)  10(10)  11(21)   6(27)   3(30)   1(31)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X  10(10)  19(29)   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)   1(34)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
LES CAYES      34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  5   8(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 29   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34 17   X(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:12 UTC