Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FAY


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
 
NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE
COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. 

FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE
AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE. 

SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER
THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST.    
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 29.4N  81.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.4N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:12 UTC