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Tropical Storm EDOUARD


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008               
0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       6      11      53       X       X
TROP DEPRESSION 10      15      21      24      34       X       X
TROPICAL STORM  88      76      55      56      12       X       X
HURRICANE        2       8      19       9       2       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       7      16       8       1       X       X
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    60KT    40KT    20KT     0KT     0KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MOBILE AL      34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 58   4(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  2  34(36)   5(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X  10(10)  11(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X  10(10)  22(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   2( 2)  27(29)   9(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  12(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  14(30)   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   8(18)   X(18)   X(18)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  14(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   9(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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