ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75 KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 24.6N 95.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:09 UTC