ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOTION...BERTHA IS PROBABLY CAUSING UPWELLING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND. BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS TO THE NORTH ABOUT 2 KNOTS. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL FAVORS A GENERAL SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS BERTHA GETS CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT MAINTAINING ITS SLOW PACE. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO TURN BERTHA TOWARD THE EAST BEYOND DAY FOUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 29.9N 62.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 30.2N 62.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.7N 62.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.3N 62.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 62.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.5N 60.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:05 UTC