| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm KIKO (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  12(19)  16(35)   3(38)   X(38)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)  15(33)   3(36)   X(36)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  10(17)   4(21)   1(22)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   5(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   4(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
P VALLARTA     34  2   7( 9)   6(15)   5(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  4   6(10)   5(15)   2(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   3( 4)   7(11)   8(19)   5(24)   2(26)   X(26)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   8( 9)  13(22)   7(29)   5(34)   X(34)   X(34)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 183N 1068W 34 91   4(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 183N 1068W 50 32  12(44)   2(46)   X(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 12 183N 1068W 64  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 24 191N 1075W 34 40  35(75)   7(82)   2(84)   2(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 24 191N 1075W 50  3  28(31)   8(39)   2(41)   1(42)   1(43)   X(43)
 24 191N 1075W 64  X   8( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 36 199N 1082W 34  4  41(45)  21(66)   6(72)   4(76)   X(76)   1(77)
 36 199N 1082W 50  X   9( 9)  17(26)   6(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 36 199N 1082W 64  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 48 207N 1089W 34  1  15(16)  28(44)  15(59)   7(66)   1(67)   X(67)
 48 207N 1089W 50  X   1( 1)  11(12)  10(22)   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 48 207N 1089W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 217N 1107W 34  1   2( 3)   8(11)  16(27)  14(41)   4(45)   1(46)
 72 217N 1107W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 72 217N 1107W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 225N 1135W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)   6(18)   1(19)
 96 225N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 96 225N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
 
120 230N 1170W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
120 230N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 230N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     65      70      75      65      50      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC