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Tropical Storm KIKO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)  14(29)   7(36)   1(37)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)  13(27)   6(33)   1(34)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   6(20)   1(21)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   3(14)   X(14)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   7(17)   2(19)   1(20)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   7(22)   1(23)   X(23)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   6(26)   1(27)   X(27)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  6   5(11)   6(17)   3(20)   6(26)   1(27)   1(28)
 
MANZANILLO     34  4   3( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   7(21)   4(25)   1(26)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   6( 6)  14(20)  11(31)   9(40)   1(41)   1(42)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 181N 1064W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 181N 1064W 50 17   9(26)   1(27)   1(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 12 181N 1064W 64  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 190N 1073W 34 25  40(65)   9(74)   5(79)   2(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 24 190N 1073W 50  1  16(17)  10(27)   3(30)   2(32)   1(33)   X(33)
 24 190N 1073W 64  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 36 197N 1078W 34  4  36(40)  21(61)   8(69)   4(73)   1(74)   X(74)
 36 197N 1078W 50  X   6( 6)  14(20)   7(27)   3(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 36 197N 1078W 64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 205N 1085W 34  1  12(13)  27(40)  17(57)   8(65)   1(66)   1(67)
 48 205N 1085W 50  X   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)   6(27)   1(28)   X(28)
 48 205N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 210N 1095W 34  X   4( 4)  16(20)  20(40)  11(51)   4(55)   1(56)
 72 210N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   7(19)   3(22)   X(22)
 72 210N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 215N 1115W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)  13(26)   8(34)   1(35)
 96 215N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 96 215N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 220N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
120 220N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 220N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      65      75      75      65      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC