Tropical Storm KIKO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
1500 UTC THU OCT 18 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   2(13)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   1(16)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   8(21)   3(24)   1(25)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   7(13)   7(20)   3(23)   1(24)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  2   9(11)   5(16)   5(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)
L CARDENAS     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   3(15)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 170N 1032W 34 18  17(35)   7(42)   2(44)   2(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 12 170N 1032W 50  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 12 170N 1032W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 175N 1032W 34  8  16(24)   9(33)   5(38)   2(40)   1(41)   X(41)
 24 175N 1032W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 24 175N 1032W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 180N 1035W 34  3  11(14)  10(24)   7(31)   2(33)   2(35)   X(35)
 36 180N 1035W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 36 180N 1035W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 185N 1042W 34  1   5( 6)   8(14)   7(21)   7(28)   1(29)   1(30)
 48 185N 1042W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 48 185N 1042W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 195N 1050W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   9(19)   3(22)   1(23)
 72 195N 1050W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 72 195N 1050W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 205N 1060W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   4(15)   3(18)
 96 205N 1060W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 205N 1060W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 220N 1075W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)
120 220N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 220N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      55      55      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN