Tropical Storm KIKO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0300 UTC THU OCT 18 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   2(14)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  10(18)   4(22)   1(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   9(17)   3(20)   2(22)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   5(16)   2(18)   X(18)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   1(13)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   3(14)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 152N 1041W 34 24  17(41)   4(45)   2(47)   2(49)   1(50)   1(51)
 12 152N 1041W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 12 152N 1041W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 160N 1038W 34  5  17(22)  11(33)   5(38)   3(41)   1(42)   1(43)
 24 160N 1038W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 24 160N 1038W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
 36 168N 1039W 34  1   9(10)  14(24)   8(32)   6(38)   3(41)   1(42)
 36 168N 1039W 50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 36 168N 1039W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 174N 1044W 34  1   3( 4)  11(15)  10(25)  10(35)   3(38)   1(39)
 48 174N 1044W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 48 174N 1044W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 185N 1055W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)  13(24)   5(29)   2(31)
 72 185N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 72 185N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 190N 1060W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)   5(24)   3(27)
 96 190N 1060W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 96 190N 1060W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 200N 1070W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   5(15)   3(18)
120 200N 1070W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
120 200N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      40      45      55      60      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN