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TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
2100 UTC WED OCT 17 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 2(19)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 2(18)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 149N 1047W 34 30 15(45) 5(50) 2(52) 2(54) 2(56) X(56)
12 149N 1047W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
12 149N 1047W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 155N 1047W 34 9 18(27) 10(37) 4(41) 3(44) 2(46) 1(47)
24 155N 1047W 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
24 155N 1047W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 161N 1048W 34 3 12(15) 12(27) 7(34) 6(40) 2(42) 1(43)
36 161N 1048W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
36 161N 1048W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
48 167N 1050W 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 9(28) 7(35) 4(39) 1(40)
48 167N 1050W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
48 167N 1050W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 175N 1055W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 9(28) 5(33) 1(34)
72 175N 1055W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
72 175N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 185N 1060W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 6(23) 2(25)
96 185N 1060W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
96 185N 1060W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
120 190N 1065W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 2(20)
120 190N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
120 190N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 40 45 50 55 55
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC