Tropical Storm KIKO
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1500 UTC WED OCT 17 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 152N 1067W 34 30 13(43) 7(50) 3(53) 2(55) 2(57) X(57)
12 152N 1067W 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
12 152N 1067W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 157N 1066W 34 11 18(29) 9(38) 5(43) 4(47) 2(49) 1(50)
24 157N 1066W 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12)
24 157N 1066W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
36 161N 1066W 34 6 13(19) 13(32) 7(39) 5(44) 3(47) 1(48)
36 161N 1066W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
36 161N 1066W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
48 167N 1067W 34 2 8(10) 13(23) 8(31) 9(40) 3(43) 1(44)
48 167N 1067W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10)
48 167N 1067W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 175N 1070W 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 10(31) 6(37) 1(38)
72 175N 1070W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
72 175N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 185N 1080W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 7(24) 2(26)
96 185N 1080W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
96 185N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
120 195N 1085W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 3(20)
120 195N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
120 195N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 40 45 50 55 55
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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