Tropical Storm KIKO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 143N 1085W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 143N 1085W 50  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 12 143N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 145N 1085W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 145N 1085W 50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 145N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 150N 1085W 34  7  11(18)   7(25)   3(28)   5(33)   1(34)   1(35)
 36 150N 1085W 50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 36 150N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 153N 1085W 34  3   9(12)   9(21)   4(25)   4(29)   1(30)   1(31)
 48 153N 1085W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 153N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 155N 1090W 34  2   6( 8)   7(15)   5(20)   4(24)   2(26)   1(27)
 72 155N 1090W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 155N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 160N 1095W 34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   7(19)   2(21)   X(21)
 96 160N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 160N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 165N 1100W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   1(16)
120 165N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
120 165N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      35      35      35      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN