Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 147N 1090W 34 19  16(35)   5(40)   4(44)   3(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 12 147N 1090W 50  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 12 147N 1090W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 145N 1085W 34 11  23(34)   5(39)   5(44)   2(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 24 145N 1085W 50  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 24 145N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 148N 1082W 34  6  21(27)   7(34)   6(40)   2(42)   2(44)   X(44)
 36 148N 1082W 50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 36 148N 1082W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 149N 1085W 34  9  22(31)   6(37)   5(42)   2(44)   1(45)   1(46)
 48 149N 1085W 50  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 149N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 152N 1090W 34 11  15(26)   4(30)   8(38)   1(39)   2(41)   X(41)
 72 152N 1090W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 72 152N 1090W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 155N 1095W 34  5   8(13)   5(18)   9(27)   3(30)   2(32)   X(32)
 96 155N 1095W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 96 155N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 155N 1100W 34  3   4( 7)   5(12)   7(19)   4(23)   2(25)   X(25)
120 155N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
120 155N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     35      35      35      35      35      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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