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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007               
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   2(12)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 152N 1085W 34 34  15(49)   6(55)   2(57)   2(59)   1(60)   X(60)
 12 152N 1085W 50  2   4( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)   1(15)
 12 152N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 154N 1083W 34 28  17(45)   6(51)   4(55)   2(57)   1(58)   1(59)
 24 154N 1083W 50  2   5( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   1(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 24 154N 1083W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 155N 1080W 34 20  18(38)   8(46)   5(51)   4(55)   1(56)   1(57)
 36 155N 1080W 50  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 36 155N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
 48 157N 1078W 34 11  21(32)  10(42)   5(47)   6(53)   2(55)   X(55)
 48 157N 1078W 50  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 48 157N 1078W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 165N 1075W 34  2  11(13)  11(24)   8(32)   7(39)   3(42)   1(43)
 72 165N 1075W 50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 72 165N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 175N 1080W 34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   8(26)   5(31)   1(32)
 96 175N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 96 175N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 180N 1090W 34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   6(16)   6(22)   2(24)
120 180N 1090W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
120 180N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      50      50      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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