ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007 AT 8 PM PDT...03000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF MANZANILLO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 105.9W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 180SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 105.9W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.1N 106.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 107.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 107.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 105SE 105SW 105NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 22.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:05 UTC