ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007 KIKO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE LATEST BURST DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0144Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 260/11. KIKO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST 48 HR BEFORE A DEEP-LAYER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF KIKO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE KIKO TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HR OR LESS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW LONG THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LAST. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW IT LASTING THROUGH FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IT WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN LESS THAN 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND FORECAST THE REMNANTS TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.1N 112.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.9N 114.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.9N 116.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 118.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/0600Z 19.4N 120.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC