ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007 AFTER PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT... TEMPORARILY HALTING THE WEAKENING TREND...IT APPEARS THAT KIKO'S DOWNWARD TREND HAS RESUMED. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE PRIMARILY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS DEBRIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE DETERIORATING SATELLITE APPEARANCE. KIKO'S ANTICIPATED TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING. IN FACT...IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE SOON...KIKO COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. KIKO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AS IT HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 280/5. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A TURN NORTHWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW APPROACHES A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 19.7N 108.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.8N 110.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 19.8N 112.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 114.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 116.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC