ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS PLODDING ALONG AT ABOUT 300/2 TO THE SOUTH OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KIKO IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN TO THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. EVEN THE GFDL... WHICH IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND HAS HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS WITH THIS STORM...TAKES KIKO SAFELY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT SLOWER THAN...THE UKMET...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SINCE IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT ANY FURTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON KIKO ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR THE TIME BEING. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0140Z SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PARTICULARLY AT THE UPPERMOST LEVELS...BUT AS KIKO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE THE SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH WARM WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE...KIKO COULD MAINTAIN STORM STATUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF COOL WATER...DRY AIR...AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SWIFT DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 19.6N 108.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 19.8N 108.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 19.9N 110.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC