Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KIKO


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KIKO IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN 24 HR AGO...WITH A LESS ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST 24 HR...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE CENTER TO BECOME MORE INVOLVED
WITH THE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
RAGGED...AND BASED ON THIS AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE CENTER OF KIKO MOVED FASTER DURING THE NIGHT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/8.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED SHOULD SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR AS PRESSURES RISE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE UNITED STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY THE CENTER TURNING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. 
AFTER 48 HR...A SECOND DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN U.S.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS EFFECTS ON KIKO.  THE ECMWF
AND NOGAPS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY FARTHER TO THE WEST...
WITH KIKO TURNING NORTHWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE UKMET AND
GFS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF KIKO CAUSING A WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE
OPEN PACIFIC.  RIGHT NOW...IT CANNOT BE DETERMINED WHICH OF THESE
EXTREMES WILL BE RIGHT...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THEM WITH A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THEM TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING...WITH
THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FASTER INTENSIFICATION THEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH KIKO REACHING A 55 KT INTENSITY BEFORE THE
CENTER BRUSHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HR.  KIKO COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE IF THE CENTER STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...AS
INDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL.

THE CURRENT POSITION AND NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRE WARNINGS AND
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 16.4N 103.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 103.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 103.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 104.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N 105.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N 106.0W    55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC