ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007 KIKO CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES... AS ITS CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AS DOES AN AMSU PASS FROM 2039Z. HOWEVER...A HIGH-RES ASCAT PASS FROM 1716Z INDICATED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT. AS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. KIKO IS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MONSOONAL TROUGH...IN WHICH KIKO IS EMBEDDED...AND A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND KIKO SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...UKMET...HWRF...AND GFDL. WHILE THE SSTS REMAIN A RATHER TOASTY 29C UNDERNEATH KIKO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT OR MORE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THE DECAY-SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPOND TO THIS BY INTENSIFYING KIKO TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WIN OUT AND KIKO COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE THE DECREASED SHEAR KICKS IN...AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.0N 107.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.1N 107.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 106.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W 35 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 107.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 16.2N 107.6W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 108.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC