ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007 AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EARLIER TODAY...THE CENTER BECAME FAR REMOVED FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT KIKO HAS WEAKENED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD STILL OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREAFTER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A TURN TO THE LEFT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KIKO IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 180 N MI IN FIVE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.1N 108.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 108.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 107.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 108.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 109.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 109.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC