ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WITH THE CENTER REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND AN OBSERVATION OF 35 KNOTS FROM SHIP A8GT6 SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. KIKO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME BRINGING KIKO EASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO AND OTHERS BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH FORCING KIKO WESTWARD. MOST OF THE TIME...THIS MODEL SPLIT IS AN INDICATION THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK. THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION OR A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL AND SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.2N 108.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.3N 108.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 109.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 109.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC