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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   5( 5)  23(28)  11(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 156N 1125W 34 32  16(48)   2(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 12 156N 1125W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 156N 1125W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 166N 1136W 34  3  33(36)  11(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 24 166N 1136W 50  X   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 166N 1136W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 178N 1142W 34  X  11(11)  26(37)   7(44)   1(45)   1(46)   X(46)
 36 178N 1142W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 178N 1142W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 190N 1148W 34  X   2( 2)  17(19)  13(32)   4(36)   1(37)   X(37)
 48 190N 1148W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 48 190N 1148W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 200N 1155W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   6(25)   1(26)   X(26)
 72 200N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 200N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 205N 1160W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   6(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 96 205N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 96 205N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 210N 1165W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   1(14)
120 210N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
120 210N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      35      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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