Tropical Storm JULIETTE
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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
200 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2007
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF A SHRINKING AND WEAKENING AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A
REMNANT LOW ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS. IF JULIETTE DOES NOT
GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS IT COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8. JULIETTE HAS NOT DECELERATED IN ITS
FORWARD MOTION YET...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOON AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THIS CONTINUED
PACE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.7N 115.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.7N 115.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 24.7N 116.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1800Z 25.1N 116.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
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