Tropical Storm JULIETTE
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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
800 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2007
AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN FINDING THE
CENTER OF JULIETTE...WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
RATHER LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. A
LATE-ARRIVING QUIKSCAT PASS CAUGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND VECTORS.
ASSUMING WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. SOUTHERLY
SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
JULIETTE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND
TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...JULIETTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECELERATE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AMSR-E MICROWAVE DATA.
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 115.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.7N 115.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 23.6N 116.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1200Z 24.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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